The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Oil Shock, Consumer Sentiment, 52-Week Moving Average

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed lower last week as geopolitical tensions and energy volatility pressured risk sentiment. The S&P 500 finished at 6,506.48, down -1.90%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined -2.07% to 21,647.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -2.11% to 45,577.48.

The primary driver remains the Iran conflict and the resulting oil shock. Brent crude briefly retested $120, while WTI approached $100. This marked the first meaningful pullback of the year, reinforcing how sensitive equities are to energy-driven inflation risks.

Markets are now focused on the duration of the disruption. A short-lived spike in oil would likely push inflation higher in the near term while only modestly slowing growth. A prolonged move higher would increase pressure on consumer spending and corporate margins.

The Federal Reserve remains in a holding pattern. Rates were left unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, with policymakers signaling they may look through a one-time energy-driven inflation increase. Inflation expectations remain the key variable.

Despite the pullback, underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Large-cap and technology stocks continue to provide relative stability, helping cushion downside pressure.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Mar 23
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled.
Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – Construction Spending m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior 0.3%)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Tuesday, Mar 24
Before the Open:
• Concentrix (CNXC), est. $2.65
• Core & Main (CNM), est. $0.33
• Smithfield Foods (SFD), est. $0.68
Economic Releases:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change, prior 9.0K
• 12:30 GMT – Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, forecast 2.4% (prior 2.8%)
• 12:30 GMT – Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, forecast 3.4% (prior 2.8%)
• 13:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, prior 51.6
• 13:45 GMT – Flash Services PMI, prior 51.7
• 14:00 GMT – Richmond Fed Index, forecast -5 (prior -10)
• 20:30 GMT – API Crude Stocks
After the Close:
• AAR Corp (AIR), est. $1.15
• Braze (BRZE), est. $0.14
• KB Home (KBH), est. $0.55
• Worthington Enterprises (WOR), est. $0.96

Wednesday, Mar 25
Before the Open:
• Chewy (CHWY), est. $0.28
• Cintas (CTAS), est. $1.24
• Paychex (PAYX), est. $1.67
• Winnebago (WGO), est. $0.24
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Current Account, prior -226B
• 12:30 GMT – Import Prices m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior 6.2M
After the Close:
• Jefferies (JEF), est. $0.87
• Enerpac (EPAC), est. $0.40

Thursday, Mar 26
Before the Open:
• Lovesac (LOVE), est. $2.01
• Commercial Metals (CMC), est. $1.30
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 211K (prior 205K)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior 35B
After the Close:
• Argan (AGX), est. $1.98

Friday, Mar 27
Before the Open:
• Carnival (CCL), est. $0.18
Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – UoM Consumer Sentiment, prior 55.5
• 14:00 GMT – UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 3.4%
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Thursday: Jefferson (Fed Governor) – 23:00 GMT
Friday: Daly (Fed President) – 15:30 GMT
Friday: Paulson (Fed) – 15:40 GMT

Fed commentary will be closely watched for signals on how policymakers assess energy-driven inflation and labor market risks. Any shift in tone could influence rate expectations and equity positioning.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 45,577.48 (-2.11%), support at 45,446.67 (52-week SMA), 43,562.29, 41,921.97, resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 21,647.61 (-2.07%), support at 21,312.01 (52-week SMA), 19,402.01, 18,312.17, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,506.48 (-1.90%), support at 6,414.68 (52-week SMA), 5,918.66, 5,662.93, resistance at 7,002.28.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

This week’s focus centers on consumer sentiment and labor market data as rising energy prices begin to filter into inflation expectations. The University of Michigan survey will be critical in assessing how higher gasoline prices are impacting consumers.

Fed speakers will also guide near-term positioning, particularly around how policymakers interpret energy-driven inflation versus underlying trends. Markets remain sensitive to any change in rate expectations.

The 52-week moving average remains a key technical reference point across all major indices. With prices still holding above these levels, the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent weakness. A sustained break below these levels would signal a shift in market structure, while continued support should help stabilize sentiment if macro pressures ease.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.