The Week Ahead: Markets Set for Volatile Week on Fed Signals and Oil Price News

Market Overview

U.S. equities reversed hard Friday, erasing midweek gains and closing lower across major indexes. The Dow fell 1.3%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.6%, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% for the week.

The sharp Friday sell-off followed reports of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, sparking flight-to-safety flows. This risk-off turn wiped out earlier optimism from cooler May inflation and a tentative U.S.–China trade framework.

Crude oil jumped 13% to $72.98/bbl, gold rose 3.2% to $3,452.80/oz, and the U.S. dollar gained 1.39% versus the euro.

Economic News and Earnings Reports

Monday, June 16

• 12:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun): -5.9 vs. prior -9.2
• After market – Lennar (EPS est. $1.94 on $8.2B revenue)

Tuesday, June 17

• 12:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales (May): est. +0.2%
• 12:30 GMT – Retail Sales (May): est. -0.6%
• 12:30 GMT – Import Prices (May): est. -0.3%
• 13:15 GMT – Capacity Utilization (May): est. 77.7%
• 13:15 GMT – Industrial Production (May): est. 0.0%
• 14:00 GMT – Business Inventories (Apr): est. 0.0%james
• 14:00 GMT – NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun): est. 35
• Before market – Jabil (EPS est. $2.29)
• After market – La-Z-Boy (EPS est. $0.93)

Wednesday, June 18

• 12:30 GMT – Weekly Jobless Claims: est. 248K
• 12:30 GMT – Building Permits (May): est. 1.43M
• 12:30 GMT – Housing Starts (May): est. 1.36M
• 18:00 GMT – Fed Funds Rate Decision: expected 4.50% hold
• 18:00 GMT – FOMC Economic Projections and Statement
• 18:30 GMT – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
• Before market – GMS (EPS est. $1.11), Korn Ferry (EPS est. $1.26)
• After market – Smith & Wesson (EPS est. $0.23)

Thursday, June 19

• U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth holiday

Friday, June 20

• 12:30 GMT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun): est. -1.2
• 14:00 GMT – Conference Board Leading Index (May): est. -0.1%
• Before market – Darden Restaurants (EPS est. $2.94 on $3.3B revenue), Accenture (EPS est. $3.32), Kroger (EPS est. $1.45), CarMax (EPS est. $1.18)

Fed Takes Center Stage

All eyes are on the FOMC Wednesday. The rate is expected to remain at 4.50%, but the dot plot and Powell’s comments could shape expectations for cuts in the back half of 2025. With inflation cooling and labor data steady, traders will be watching for any shift in tone.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 closed at 5,976.97, holding above its 52-week simple moving average at 5,747.49 for a fifth straight week. Immediate resistance remains the March high at 6,147.43.

A break above 6,147.43 would confirm bullish continuation; a close below 5,747.49 would indicate a weakening trend.

The Nasdaq Composite finished at 19,406.83, maintaining a clear lead above its 52-week SMA at 18,390.48. Price remains in recovery mode off the April low at 14,784.03.

Resistance is located at the March peak of 20,204.58. Key support rests first at 18,390.48, then at 18,000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,197.79, staying marginally above its 52-week SMA at 41,996.50. The index has held above this level for four out of five weeks.

Resistance stands at 45073.63. A break above that would shift long-term momentum higher. Support is at 41,996.50 and 40,842.70, which must hold to avoid deeper retracement risk.

The Week Ahead

Fed policy guidance, housing and retail data, and a heavy slate of earnings from consumer names will drive this week’s tape. Traders are watching for confirmation of rate-cut expectations, signs of consumer resilience, and any new shocks out of the Middle East. Dollar strength and rising gold and oil prices signal elevated market stress heading into a critical policy week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.