U.S. Q2 GDP Surges to 3%: Consumer Spending and Trade Shift Drive Growth

Stronger Growth Despite Tariffs: Is the Economy Holding Up?

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 3.0% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate, beating forecasts and offering a solid rebound from the previous quarter’s contraction.

The Dow Jones estimate of 2.3% was comfortably surpassed, with the turnaround largely attributed to improved trade balance figures and stronger consumer spending.

This report marks a reversal from Q1’s 0.5% decline, which had been weighed down by a spike in imports and weaker household consumption linked to tariff uncertainty.

Imports Fall as Tariff Impact Shifts, Lifting GDP

The most significant contributor to the Q2 rebound was a drop in imports, which subtract from GDP calculations. In Q1, businesses accelerated imports in anticipation of tariff hikes following President Trump’s April 2 tariff declaration. That front-loaded activity reversed in Q2, easing pressure on GDP. While overall investment and exports declined during the quarter, the drag was more than offset by the reduction in import volume.

Consumer Spending Recovery Buoys Domestic Demand

Consumer spending, which had been subdued earlier in the year, gained traction in Q2, rising 1.4% compared to just 0.5% in Q1. This improvement signals a moderate recovery in domestic demand, though the pace remains below historical averages.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a key gauge of private sector strength—grew just 1.2%, slowing from 1.9% in Q1, suggesting that private investment remains cautious despite the headline GDP gain.

Cooling Inflation Offers Additional Support

Price measures in Q2 also showed a pullback in inflation.

The gross domestic purchases price index rose 1.9%, down from 3.4% in Q1. The PCE price index increased 2.1%, and the core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 2.5%—both figures lower than their prior quarter levels.

This cooling in inflation could provide the Federal Reserve with added flexibility should growth waver or trade tensions escalate.

Market Forecast: Cautious Bullish Bias Supported by Data

The Q2 GDP beat and improving consumer activity signal a short-term bullish tilt for equity markets, particularly sectors tied to domestic consumption.

However, the modest rise in final private sales and retreat in business investment suggest caution is warranted.

If trade tensions escalate or consumer momentum fades, the outlook could soften.

For now, the data support a measured risk-on bias, especially if inflation remains contained and the Fed holds its stance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.