The Week Ahead: Markets Weigh Jobs, Inflation, Fed Guidance, and Shutdown Risk

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended last week slightly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 46,247, down 0.1%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 6,644, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7% to 22,484. Year-to-date, the Dow is up 8.7%, the S&P 500 has gained 13.0%, and the Nasdaq leads with a 16.4% advance.

Economic data continued to surprise to the upside. Final Q2 GDP was revised higher to 3.8% annualized, well above forecasts, while August personal income and spending also exceeded expectations. These signs of consumer resilience helped underpin growth momentum heading into Q3.

Inflation readings, however, remain a focal point. Core PCE rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, above the Fed’s 2% target but in line with consensus. With the Fed set to decide on rates at the October 30 meeting, markets remain sensitive to both inflation trends and labor market signals.

This week, traders face a heavy dose of labor market data. Tuesday’s JOLTS and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will be closely watched, particularly as weekly jobless claims have recently stabilized. A potential U.S. government shutdown starting October 1 adds further uncertainty to the data calendar.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Sep 29
Before the Open:
• Carnival (CCL), est. $1.32
Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales m/m, forecast +0.2% (prior -0.4%)
After the Close:
• Jefferies (JEF), est. $0.80
• Progress Software (PRGS), est. $1.30
• Vail Resorts (MTN), est. -$4.75

Tuesday, Sep 30
Before the Open:
• Lamb Weston (LW), est. $0.54
• Paychex (PAYX), est. $1.20
• United Natural Foods (UNFI), est. -$0.18
Economic Releases:
• 13:00 GMT – HPI m/m, forecast 0.0% (prior -0.2%)
• 13:00 GMT – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, forecast 2.3% (prior 2.1%)
• 13:45 GMT – Chicago PMI, forecast 43.2 (prior 41.5)
• 14:00 GMT – JOLTS Job Openings, forecast 7.15M (prior 7.18M)
• 14:00 GMT – CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 95.3 (prior 97.4)
After the Close:
• Nike (NKE), est. $0.26

Wednesday, Oct 1
Before the Open:
• Acuity (AYI), est. $4.79
• Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), est. $4.61
• Conagra (CAG), est. $0.33
• RPM Inc (RPM), est. $1.88
Economic Releases:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast 53K (prior 54K)
• 13:45 GMT – Final Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.0 (prior 52.0)
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast 49.1 (prior 48.7)
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing Prices, forecast 64.5 (prior 63.7)
• 14:00 GMT – Construction Spending m/m, forecast -0.1% (prior -0.1%)
• All Day – Wards Total Vehicle Sales, forecast 16.2M (prior 16.1M)
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -0.6M
After the Close:
• Levi Strauss (LEVI), est. $0.30

Thursday, Oct 2
Before the Open:
• AngioDynamics (ANGO), est. -$0.12
Economic Releases:
• 11:30 GMT – Challenger Job Cuts y/y, prior 13.3%
• 12:30 GMT – Weekly Jobless Claims, forecast 229K (prior 218K)
• 14:00 GMT – Factory Orders m/m, forecast +0.9% (prior -1.3%)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior +75B
After the Close:
No reports scheduled

Friday, Oct 3
Before the Open:
No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, forecast +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – Non-Farm Payrolls, forecast +51K (prior +22K)
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.3% (prior 4.3%)
• 13:45 GMT – Final Services PMI, forecast 53.9 (prior 53.9)
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI, forecast 52.0 (prior 52.0)

Central Bank Activity

Monday, Sep 29
• Waller (Governor) – 11:30 GMT
• Hammack (Governor) – 12:00 GMT
• Trump (President) – 17:15 GMT
• Musalem (Governor) – 17:30 GMT
• Williams (NY Fed President) – 17:30 GMT
• Bostic (Atlanta Fed President) – 22:00 GMT

Tuesday, Sep 30
• Jefferson (Vice Chair) – 10:00 GMT
• Collins (Boston Fed President) – 13:00 GMT
• Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President) – 17:30 GMT
• Logan (Dallas Fed President) – 23:10 GMT

Thursday, Oct 2
• Logan (Dallas Fed President) – 14:30 GMT

Friday, Oct 3
• Williams (NY Fed President) – 10:05 GMT
• Jefferson (Vice Chair) – 17:40 GMT

Heavy Fed commentary through the week will frame inflation, labor market, and policy outlooks, shaping expectations ahead of the October 30 FOMC meeting.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 46,247.29 (-0.15%), support at 45,073.63, 43,340.68 then 43,244.26, resistance at 46,714.27.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,484.07 (-0.65%), support at 22,185.87, 20,905.99, 19,334.98 then 19,430.84, resistance at 22,801.90.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,643.70 (-0.31%), support at 6,569.22, 6,343.86, 6,212.69 then 5,991.12, resistance at 6,699.52.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend. However, the weekly reversals down suggest a possibly top heavy market that could lead to a short-term correction. Nonetheless, there is nothing that suggests a major top is being formed.

Outlook

This week’s focus will be labor market data and Fed commentary. JOLTS and the September jobs report will test whether recent stabilization in jobless claims translates into firmer employment momentum. Payrolls are expected to rebound modestly, with wages steady at 0.3% m/m.

At the same time, PCE inflation data aligned with consensus, leaving the Fed attentive but not pressured into policy change ahead of October. Fed speeches through the week may hint at whether policymakers lean toward patience or further cuts.

With growth still running above trend but political risk from a potential government shutdown in play, markets may tread cautiously. Jobs data and Fed commentary will likely set the near-term tone into October earnings season.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.