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The Week Ahead – US Jobs Report, the RBA, and the RBNZ in Focus

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Apr 2, 2023, 06:06 UTC

It is a busy week ahead. Monetary policy decisions, private sector PMIs, and central bank commentary will influence ahead of the Jobs Report.

The Week Ahead - US Jobs Report to decide the next Fed move - FX Empire.

In this article:

On the Macro

It’s another busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with the US jobs report the main report of the week.

For the Dollar:

On Monday, ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers will draw interest ahead of JOLTs Job Openings on Tuesday.

While both reports will influence the dollar, ADP nonfarm employment change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers on Wednesday will have more market impact.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims will be in focus ahead of the all-important US Jobs Report on Friday. Nonfarm payroll and wage growth numbers will likely dictate the Fed’s next monetary policy move. With investors looking for cracks in the US economy, weak numbers could likely fuel a flight to safety.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week for the EUR.

Private sector PMIs from Italy and Spain and finalized numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will draw interest on Monday and Wednesday.

However, German economic indicators, including trade data (Tues), factory orders (Wed), and industrial production (Thurs), will likely have more impact as investors look for reasons for the ECB to stand pat on monetary policy.

With plenty of stats to consider, ECB commentary will also need consideration.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will lecture at the University of Cyprus on Wednesday.

For the Pound:

It is a busier week ahead for the Pound. Finalized manufacturing and service sector PMIs will be in focus on Monday and Wednesday. We expect revisions to the services PMI to have more influence.

House price figures and construction PMI numbers are out on Thursday but should have a limited impact on the Pound.

However, Bank of England commentary will move the dial, with MPC member Tenreyro and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking on Tuesday and Wednesday.

UK economic indicators have signaled a more upbeat macro-economic environment and rosier outlook. With inflation accelerating in February, hawkish BoE chatter would fuel bets of another policy move.

For the Loonie:

It is a busy week ahead on the economic calendar for the Loonie.

On Monday, the BoC Business Outlook Survey will influence the Loonie ahead of trade data and employment numbers on Wednesday and Thursday.

Other stats include building permits and Ivey PMI numbers that should have a muted impact on the Loonie.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It is a big week ahead for the Aussie Dollar.

Building approvals and finalized manufacturing sector PMI numbers will be in focus on Monday. However, the numbers are unlikely to move the dial, with investors looking toward Tuesday and the RBA monetary policy decision.

While the RBA has agreed to consider standing pat on a policy, the markets are betting on a 25-basis point interest rate hike. A surprise hold would sink the AUD/USD.

Other stats include the AIG Manufacturing Index (Wed) and trade data (Thurs). While both reports will influence, the RBA will be the key driver in the week.

RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Wednesday, with the RBA Financial Stability Review out on Thursday.

From elsewhere, private sector PMI numbers from China will also move the dial.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

For the Kiwi Dollar, it is also a big week ahead. On Tuesday, the NZIER Business Confidence survey for Q1 will draw interest.

However, the RBNZ monetary policy decision will be the main event. Economists forecast the RBNZ to hike interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The RBNZ is prone to delivering surprises

From elsewhere, private sector PMI numbers from China will also move the dial.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a busy week for the Japanese Yen. Tankan numbers and the finalized manufacturing PMI will draw interest on Monday. We expect the Tankan figures to have more influence on the Yen.

On Wednesday, finalized services PMI numbers will also draw interest ahead of household spending figures on Friday.

While the stats will influence, investors should track any commentary from the Bank of Japan. Deviation from supporting ultraloose monetary policy would support a Yen breakout.

Out of China

Private sector PMI numbers for March will influence market risk sentiment on Monday and Thursday. While the Caixin services PMI (Thurs) will draw interest, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mon) will have more influence on market risk appetite. Economists forecast the Manufacturing PMI to rise from 51.6 to 51.7.

Geo-Politics

The war in Ukraine and China-Russia relations will remain the focal point.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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