Twitter Rallies to a 6-Year High
Twitter Inc. (TWTR) rallied to a 6-year high in the first hour of Wednesday’s U.S. session, following a key JPMorgan upgrade. The stock has been on a roll so far in 2020, now posting an impressive 72% year-to-date return. Even so, the social media giant is still trading 20 points below December 2013’s all-time high at 74.73, highlighting years of sub-par performance compared to rival Facebook Inc. (FB) and other industry players.
Trading at Discount to Rivals
The stock is trading at a substantial discount to Snap Inc. (SNAP) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS), with both issues zooming to all-time highs this year. However, a new advertising platform, ongoing activist pressure, and a management buyback plan are improving mixed sentiment, raising odds the company will earn up to 30 times 2022 EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and 9.5 times projected 2022 revenue.
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth upgraded the stock to ‘Overweight’ on Wednesday, raising the price target to $65 while noting, “we are bullish on online advertising in 2021 and expect industry growth to reaccelerate. We believe Twitter will show the biggest rebound given its sharper pandemic-driven ad decline, along with revenue prioritization throughout the company, early benefits from rebuilt ad tech through the new Ad Server and rollout of Map 2.0, and increases in both advertiser count and ad load”.
Wall Street has been playing ‘catch-up’ throughout the year, with Twitter outperforming their modest expectations. Consensus stands at a mixed ‘Hold” rating based upon 7 ‘Buy’ and 19 ‘Hold’ recommendations. One analyst now recommends that shareholders close positions and move to the sidelines. Price targets currently range from a low of just $36 to a Street-high $65 while the stock opened Wednesday’s session $8 above the median $47 target.
Wall Street and Technical Outlook
A 7-week rally has now mounted resistance at the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2013 to 2016 downtrend at 51, opening the door to continued upside that should reach the .786 retracement at 62. That price level is narrow-aligned with multiple whipsaws that followed the 2014 reversal, marking the last major barrier before Twitter reaches and tests the all-time high in the 70s. While all systems are ‘go’, a trip into that peak could easily take another 6 to 12 months.
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Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication.