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U.S. Dollar Retreats As PCE Price Index Meets Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Sep 26, 2025, 16:59 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD attempts to settle back above the 1.1700 level as traders buy the dip.
  • GBP/USD moved towards the 1.3400 level.
  • USD/CAD was mostly flat despite the strong rally in commodity markets.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Traders Focus On PCE Data

DXY 260925 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to PCE Price Index report. The report indicated that PCE Price Index increased by +0.3% month-over-month in August, in line with analyst estimates.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the support at 98.00 – 98.20, it will move towards the next support level at 97.10 – 97.30.

EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1685 – 1.1700

EUR/USD 260925 4h Chart

EUR/USD rebounds after recent pullback as traders focus on economic reports from the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined from 58.2 in August to 55.1 in September, compared to analyst forecast of 55.4.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle back above the resistance at 1.1685 – 1.1700. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1785 – 1.1800 range.

GBP/USD Rebounds After Strong Pullback

GBP/USD 260925 4h Chart

GBP/USD attempts to settle back above the 1.3400 level as traders focus on general weakness of the American currency.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle above 1.3400, it will move towards the next resistance level at 1.3485 – 1.3500. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Is Flat Amid Profit-Taking

USD/CAD 260925 4h Chart

USD/CAD is mostly flat as traders take some profits off the table after the strong rally. Other commodity-related currencies are moving higher in today’s trading session as traders react to the rally in commodity markets.

A move above the 1.3950 level will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.4000 – 1.4015.

USD/JPY Failed To Settle Above 150.00

USD/JPY 260925 4h Chart

USD/JPY made an attempt to settle above the 150.00 level but lost momentum and pulled back.

The technical picture remains unchanged as USD/JPY needs to settle above 150.00 to gain additional upside momentum in the near term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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