U.S. Dollar Retreats Below $100 as Traders Await NFP Report: Analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Market Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower to $100.10 in early Friday trade, giving back recent gains as investors shift focus to today’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. With April job growth expected to slow to 138,000—down from 228,000 in March—the report carries added weight for short-term dollar direction.

Jobless claims also rose to 241,000, their highest level since February, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI posted 48.7, remaining in contraction for a second month.

Uncertainty around trade policy is compounding pressure on the dollar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that reinstating tariffs could hurt domestic economic growth. Against this backdrop, market participants are increasingly pricing in as many as four 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

A weaker-than-expected NFP print would likely reinforce those expectations.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is holding near $99.94 after rejecting resistance at $100.33, where a clear triple top has formed. This technical structure, combined with repeated failures near the $100.50 zone, points to a market struggling for direction.

The 50-period EMA at $99.68 is providing short-term support. A drop below this level could expose $99.42. On the upside, the 200 EMA at $100.15 continues to act as a ceiling, reinforcing the significance of the $100.33 resistance. Until DXY breaks out of this range, price action is likely to remain indecisive.

A close above $100.33 would shift momentum higher, but in the absence of a clear catalyst, the index remains confined between defined support and resistance.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is hovering below $1.3310 after failing to clear the 50-period EMA at $1.3328, which coincides with prior support now acting as resistance. Price remains contained below $1.3339, a key inflection zone.

The broader structure shows a pattern of lower highs since the pair topped above $1.3440, indicating continued bearish bias. The 200-period EMA at $1.3248 is currently holding, but a break below it would open the door toward $1.3181 and potentially $1.3122.

Without a firm move above $1.3340, upside attempts may remain limited. For now, GBP/USD is trading in a narrow band between nearby resistance and longer-term moving average support, awaiting a clear breakout to determine the next leg.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading below $1.1320 after failing to break above a descending trendline that has limited rallies since mid-April. The pair briefly touched $1.1340 before reversing, with the 50-period EMA at $1.1339 reinforcing overhead pressure.

On the downside, the 200 EMA at $1.1295 is offering temporary support. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.1264, with $1.1209 as the next key level. The broader trend remains bearish, and fading momentum suggests sellers are maintaining control.

Unless price reclaims $1.1340 with conviction, further downside remains likely. For now, EUR/USD is moving within a tight technical range, and direction hinges on how the market reacts around the 200 EMA.