US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – August 4, 2015 Forecast

Although the main trend is up on the daily swing chart, September U.S. Dollar Index futures appear to be losing upside momentum, leading to a consolidation chart pattern. From all appearances, it looks as if traders are undecided about their next move. This may lead to a sideways trade into Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Traders estimate the report to say the economy added 224K new jobs to the economy. A number substantially above this level is likely to mean the Fed will begin raising rates in September. This should be supportive for the U.S. Dollar. A number substantially below 224K will likely mean the Fed will delay the rate hike until December. This should put pressure on the U.S. Dollar.

The short-term range is 98.31 to 96.36. Its pivot is 97.33. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The market is currently trading over this pivot, giving it an early upside bias. The market is also trading above an uptrending angle at 97.68.

Overcoming the resistance cluster at 97.62 to 97.68 will signal the presence of buyers. This move could create enough upside momentum to trigger a move into a downtrending angle at 97.97. This is the last major resistance angle before the 98.31 main top.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under 97.33 with the next major targets a 50% level at 96.93, an uptrending angle at 96.62 and a Fibonacci level at 96.61.

The direction of the index today will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 97.33.