US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – November 10, 2015 Forecast

December U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading higher, but in a very tight range shortly before the regular session opening. Traders are likely waiting for commentary from several Fed members and Friday’s U.S. retail sales report before committing in either direction.

Hawkish commentary will likely lead to renewed buying pressure, but this move is likely to be labored. A bullish retail sales report will likely trigger a more volatile upside reaction. At this time, traders have put the probability of a Fed rate hike in December at 70%.

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart.

There are two numbers to watch closely today, last week’s high at 99.47 and a major long-term Fibonacci level at 98.78.

Taking out 99.47 with conviction will signal the return of buyers. The next major objective is the April 13 main top at 101.19. The market is not likely to reach this level today, but it is a valid target until Friday.

A failure to hold the Fib level at 98.78 will indicate the presence of sellers. This move could encourage further selling with the next target a steep uptrending angle at 98.33.

The angle at 98.33 is very important because it has guided the index higher since the October 15 main bottom at 93.83. Taking it out with conviction could trigger an acceleration into the major 50% level at 97.65.

Be careful buying strength and shorting weakness because volume is light. Read the order flow and make sure volume is on your side in order to avoid bull and bear traps.