US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – November 16, 2015 Forecast

December U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading slightly better shortly ahead of the regular session opening. The dollar is up against most major currencies. The Euro approached a near 6 ½ month low against the dollar after the deadly attacks in Paris brought a level of caution to the Forex markets. The dollar could continue to strengthen today if geopolitical risks continue to remain at heightened levels.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The new short-term range is 99.60 to 98.50. Its pivot at 99.05 is likely to control the direction of the market today.

A sustained move over the pivot at 99.05 will signal the presence of buyers. This should lead to a test of the steep uptrending angle at 99.33. Overcoming this angle will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next potential target last week’s high at 99.60. This high is also a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

A failure to overcome the angle at 99.33 may not indicate the presence of sellers, but it could mean that the buying isn’t that strong. A sustained move under the pivot at 99.05 will signal the presence of sellers.

The first downside target under 99.50 is the major Fibonacci level at 98.78. This is followed closely by last week’s low at 98.50. This number is also a trigger point for a steep break with 97.65 the next likely target.

Volatility could increase today because of geopolitical risks so be prepared. Fundamentally, the key market drivers on Tuesday and Wednesday are likely to be the U.S. consumer inflation report and the Fed minutes respectively.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 99.05 today. Trader reaction to this pivot will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control.