US Dollar Index News: DXY Soars as Treasury Yields Hit 16-Year Peak

James Hyerczyk
Published: Oct 3, 2023, 13:57 GMT+00:00

The DXY hits its highest level since last November, buoyed by soaring Treasury yields and anticipation of key U.S. labor data.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Prices Forecast

In this article:


  • The short-term market sentiment for the U.S. dollar leans bullish, bolstered by surging Treasury yields and a robust U.S. economy.
  • Congressional action to avert a government shutdown fuels Treasury yields, underscoring the market’s focus on legislative moves.
  • Federal Reserve officials present a divided front on rate hikes but agree that elevated rates are here to stay.

U.S. Dollar Hits New Heights Amid Treasury Yield Surge and Mixed Fed Signals

The U.S. dollar index is basking in a fresh glow, reaching its highest level since last November at 107.217. This surge comes as the market eagerly anticipates key U.S. labor data, which could further elevate the greenback if job openings and non-farm payrolls outperform. The market spotlight is also on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which has soared to its highest point since 2007, standing at 4.727% as of Tuesday morning.

Elevated Yields and Congressional Moves

The yield surge is multifaceted. A last-minute congressional move to avert a U.S. government shutdown played a significant role, pushing Treasury yields as high as 4.706% on Tuesday. This 16-year peak is noteworthy given that a government shutdown could have dented the U.S. credit rating and overall economy. Market participants are also keenly eyeing the Federal Reserve’s next steps in interest rate policy, especially as officials indicate a likelihood of rates remaining high for an extended period.

Fed’s Rate Conundrum

While there’s no consensus among Federal Reserve officials about another rate hike this year, the general sentiment is that rates will stay elevated for a considerable time. This prolonged period could help combat inflation, which remains stubbornly high despite recent declines. Investors are thus fixated on both Fed commentary and upcoming economic data to gauge the rate trajectory.

Currency Market Dynamics

As the dollar strengthens, its major counterparts are faltering. The euro, pound, and yen are lingering at multi-month lows, with the yen teetering on a psychologically crucial level that could trigger Japanese market intervention. Adding another layer to the currency dynamics are real interest rates, which are becoming increasingly favorable to the U.S. as inflation drops faster stateside than in Europe.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish for the Dollar

Given the surge in Treasury yields, the averted government shutdown, and mixed signals from the Fed, the short-term market sentiment for the U.S. dollar appears bullish. With the U.S. economy outperforming and real interest rates tilting in its favor, the dollar is poised for further gains, especially if upcoming labor data surpasses expectations.

Technical Analysis

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)

The analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) reveals a complex picture. The current daily price of 107.028 sits just below the minor resistance level of 107.00 and is inching closer to the main resistance at 107.970.

It’s significantly above both the 200-day moving average of 103.123 and the 50-day moving average of 104.036, indicating bullish momentum over both medium and long terms.

The index is also above the trend line support at 105.608, which adds to the bullish sentiment. Interestingly, the minor support is almost identical to the trend line support at 105.628.

Based on these indicators, current market sentiment for DXY appears to be bullish.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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