US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Steady as Trump Works on Iran Deal — Can GBP/USD and EUR/USD Hold?

Currencies Navigate Inflation Surge, Policy Divergence and Easing Geopolitical Risks

As of June 12, 2026, the dollar has a strong backer in a resumption of inflation. The May CPI print was up to 4.2% YoY, a number not seen since 2023. A big portion of that increase was an increase of energy prices of 23%+ as a result of the ongoing troubles in the Persian Gulf. PPI data also showed year-over-year increase of 6.5%, its steepest in years. In a scenario where core inflation remains persistent, the market will likely continue to price in a higher-for-longer scenario by the Federal Reserve.

With that said, Mr Trump’s recent announcement that he is working on reaching an Iran settlement and postponing future strikes may have eased safe-haven buying and thus inflationary pressures. The relative attractiveness of US growth and fiscal situation remains.

Meanwhile, the euro is in a somewhat similar environment with the ECB being widely expected to raise the key rate by 25bps at its June 11 meeting given the pickup in energy inflation. But growth concerns and relatively larger energy exposure limit the upside. However, given the continued fiscal support from some key economies, there could be some support in the medium term.

Meanwhile, the pound has been performing well relative to the other majors due to its relative higher rates and smaller energy exposure but a combination of lower growth and Bank of England’s stance given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties limits gains for now. However, with inflation risks due to higher energy prices remaining, there could be some monetary divergence to monitor in the next several months.

DXY Climbs to $99.81 – Ascending Channel Breakout Momentum on the 4H Chart

Price at the 4H shows continued bullish continuation in the DXY, which is trading at $99.81. There have been a series of bullish continuation candles that have pushed price above the 50 period moving average which is currently at $99.59. The price has also produced a series of higher highs from the higher low at $99.16.

The price continues to respect the ascending trendline and is above the price resistance that it has recently been in. The RSI is above 52, but is not yet in overbought territory. The price has shown higher highs and higher lows since. The RSI is continuing to increase.

The volume profile highlights the $99.38 to $99.59 zone as a strong area of dynamic support. The Fib retracement at 99.59 to 99.16 has its next level of resistance at $100.00 to $100.31. The price has a structure that is higher above $99.59, and it is above the ascending channel line. The price has also produced a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Trade Idea: Buy at $99.81, targeting $100.31, with a stop-loss at $99.38.

GBP/USD Steady at $1.3406 – Ascending Channel Support Retest on the 2H Chart

GBP/USD is trading at $1.3406 and has had mixed candles in the recent past. The price has tested support at the ascending trendline, which is at $1.3380. The moving average was providing some resistance to the price in the area of $1.3450. The price has produced higher lows since, which means that it has been continuing its momentum higher. The higher lows that the price has produced also mean that the market is still bullish on the 2H chart.

The RSI is at 52 which means the market is at a neutral level of momentum. The price has also been able to defend the higher lows, which shows that buyers are still coming in on the market to absorb some of the selling pressure. The highest volume on the market in the current structure has been at $1.3380, which means that it is a good support level for the market.

The next resistance level on the market is in the area of $1.3440 to $1.3470. The higher lows have produced a nice structure in the ascending channel for the buyers, and they continue to produce them on the market. The price has also been able to stay above the ascending trendline, which shows that buyers are still absorbing more sellers on the market.

Trade Idea: Buy at $1.3406, targeting $1.3450, with a stop-loss at $1.3360.

EUR/USD Holds $1.1573 – Trendline Support Holds on the 2H Chart

The price is at $1.1573 on the 2H and has had some bullish rejection wicks, which means there are buyers that are absorbing some of the sellers that are coming in on the market. Bullish rejection wicks have defended the descending trendline, and there was some resistance from the moving average at $1.1580. The 0.382 Fib is in the same area at $1.1555. The RSI is near 50 which means that the price has a neutral momentum, which is a good thing.

The price has also produced the highest volume at the area of $1.1550 to $1.1570 which means that this is the best place to enter on the market, which would be a neutral to good support level. The price structure is overall sideways, but has shown higher lows above $1.1500 on the 2H chart which is showing the buyers are still coming in to absorb more selling pressure. There is also confluence of the 0.382 Fib and the descending trendline as it shows that buyers are still absorbing some of the selling pressure in the market.

Trade Idea: Buy at $1.1573, targeting $1.1645, with a stop-loss at $1.1530.