US Dollar Price Forecast: Gains on BRICS Tariff Threats, GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

During the Asian session on Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher, trading near 97.11, as renewed risk-off sentiment provided support. The move followed President Trump’s social media warning that any country aligning with BRICS “anti-American policies” would face an additional 10% tariff, with no exemptions.

The statement revived concerns over trade disruptions and drove safe-haven flows into the dollar.

Officials Confirm August 1 Tariff Plans

Recent statements from senior U.S. officials further supported the dollar’s gains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that formal letters will soon be sent to key trading partners, warning that tariffs may revert to April 2 levels if no progress is made by August 1.

While not a fixed deadline, Bessent said the date marks a key checkpoint in negotiations.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added that most related agreements are expected to be finalized by July 9, with tariffs officially set to resume on August 1, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the global outlook.

Fed Policy, Fiscal Outlook Remain in Focus

Despite the rebound, the dollar remains vulnerable due to fiscal concerns and speculation over future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Trump’s recently signed “Big Beautiful Bill,” which includes sweeping tax cuts and spending curbs, has reignited debate over long-term fiscal sustainability.

Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data last week reduced expectations of aggressive Fed easing, limiting immediate downside for the dollar. Traders now await further signals ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting a breakout above 97.14 after forming a higher low structure supported by a rising trendline. Price is now testing a key resistance zone defined by the descending trendline from June highs and the 50-EMA, which sits near 97.01.

A clean close above 97.42 could shift momentum in favor of bulls, opening the door toward 97.71 and possibly 98.00. Until then, the broader bias remains bearish, as the 200-EMA, currently near 97.68, continues to slope downward.

If rejection follows, immediate support lies at 96.69 and 96.39. For now, DXY is stuck in a tightening range with volatility brewing.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has broken below a symmetrical triangle on the 2-hour chart, with the price slipping under 1.3627 and testing the 200-EMA near 1.3615. This move signals a bearish breakout after days of consolidation between 1.3681 and 1.3615.

The breakdown was preceded by a sharp rejection at the 50-EMA, which now adds overhead resistance near 1.3660. If sellers maintain pressure below 1.3615, the following key levels to watch are 1.3585 and 1.3541.

Conversely, a rebound above 1.3627 would need to reclaim 1.3660 to invalidate the bearish structure.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1766, holding just above the ascending trendline support and the 50-EMA on the 2-hour chart, both of which are aligned near 1.1763. The pair remains in a short-term consolidation phase after failing to sustain gains above 1.1810, a key horizontal resistance.

Momentum remains neutral, with the price trapped between the rising support and the 1.1820 resistance zone. A decisive move above 1.1820 would signal a bullish continuation toward 1.1848 and potentially 1.1889. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.1763 could expose 1.1716 and 1.1681 as downside targets.