US Dollar Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Unwinding Sinks DXY—Will EUR/USD Hold $1.1680?

Dollar Stabilizes below 99 – Finally Finds its Footing After a Wild Week

The US Dollar Index just barely stuck to 98.80- 98.95 on April 10 – trying to make good on a near 1% slide earlier in the week that left it near one month lows. The plummeting dollar was no shock – like the shift in market positioning that happened after all that easing in geo-political tensions meant the need for safe-haven assets was NOT as great as people thought.

Don’t get too excited though, even a bit of a rebound didnt put it over the psychologically important 100 mark – telling us the tone in dollar demand just isnt as strong as it used to be.

Analysts are saying the safe-haven flows have unwound pretty fast, but its clear they’re still not convinced – hence the ongoing volatility.

Euro and Pound Hold Onto Gains, Macro Repricing Still On

EUR/USD has steadied up near 1.1680-1.1700 after dipping down to 1.1721, while GBP/USD is chugging along around 1.3400-1.3440, good going if you ask me – still got most of its recent gains.

Both currencies got a boost from improving risk appetite and the relief on energy driven inflation worries – but its clear the Fed is still gonna be looking to tighten. a weaker dollar given the space for EUR and GBP to keep pushing higher even though the momentum is slowing down from some profit taking.

FX Markets are Fingers Crossed They Stay out of the Drama – For Now

Market players are keeping a close eye on U.S. inflation data, central bank signals and how its all gonna play out. The Euro is getting some support from lower energy prices, and Sterling is just tracking the dollar – but im pretty sure thats about to change.

For now, currency markets are just gonna stay tuned for how things change in risk perception and macroeconomic data – might be a wild ride ahead.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Trendline Support Takes a Big Hit at $98.90

The US Dollar Index is hovering just above an important level at $98.90, and it’s starting to look like that ascending trendline which had been guiding the price action since mid-March is finally starting to falter.

Those recent candlesticks have got some pretty big wicks below $98.50, which is telling us that there’s been some decent buying coming in at that level – although to be honest, the momentum is still pretty fragile.

If we break that trendline support then the next level of support we might see is around $98.00 – but if we manage to get back above $99.50, we might see some attempts to get back on the upside

Trade Idea: Sell when the price breaks below $98.50, aiming for $98.00 with a stop-loss above $99.50.

GBP/USD Technical Setup: A Confluence of Fibonacci Support and a Rising Channel at $1.3420

GBP/USD is currently trading around $1.3420 and it looks like we’re seeing a bit of stabilisation within a rising channel after that initial sharp rally. Now looking at the chart, its clear we’ve got a bit of a confluence of support going on at this level – the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone from the recent swing low to high is overlapping with the rising channel support – so that’s a pretty solid reason to think that this level should hold.

The price is still sitting happily above both 50 period and 100 period EMAs, which suggests to us that there is still a bit of a bullish structure in place. The RSI reading of around 55 is telling us that the momentum is pretty neutral at the moment – so we still have a bit of room for that momentum to keep going.

If the price breaks above $1.3450 then I think the upward momentum could well resume – but if we lose $1.3380 then we might see things get a bit more interesting.

Trade Idea: If we see the price break above $1.3450 then I think its worth a punt to buy – aiming for $1.3500, with a stop-loss below $1.3380.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A Bullish Breakout is Being Put to the Test at $1.1680

EUR/USD has been trading around $1.1680 since making a sharp bullish breakout above a descending trendline and that other resistance level at $1.1650. The current candlesticks are looking a bit on the quiet side – smaller bodies and all that suggests that the volatility has gone down a bit since that initial buying spree.

But what’s pleasing is that the price is still sitting happily above both those 50 period and 100 period EMAs, which suggests to us that there is still a short-term bullish structure in place. If we can hold out above $1.1650 then I think the bias is still upwards towards $1.1720 – but if we fail, we might see a pullback.

Trade Idea: If we see the price tick up near $1.1650 then I think its worth a punt to buy – aiming for $1.1720, with a stop-loss below $1.1600.