USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bears Penetrating into the Red Ichimoku Clouds

After touching the 1.3382 pinnacle handle on Sept 3, the pair took a U-turn, rebounding to the downside. Though there was a slight intermediate pause last day, portraying a consolidated phase, the bears resumed the negative price actions. Today, the Loonie pair marked the opening near 1.3226 level and kept the downtrend intact.

Meanwhile, the Crude prices fell on Thursday, shedding some previously accumulated gains. The commodity prices dropped following latest API reports, revealing buildup of inventories.

“Oil bulls can’t seemingly catch a break after the rally sapping surprising build in the American Petroleum Institute oil inventory survey has throttled WTI upward momentum dead in its tracks,” said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader.

Significant Economic Events

The US economic docket appears over-filled with critical data releases on Thursday. Notably, the market would pay more attention to the highly significant August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. This time, the street analysts expect this PMI data to report 54.0 points vs. the previous 53.7 points.

Prior to the ISM Index release, the traders would look for the US August Jobs data. This time, the market estimates the ADP Employment Change to record 149K vs. the last 156K. Laterwards, the Jobless and Q2 Non-Farm Productivity data releases might catch further market attention.

Anyhow, the consensus stays bullish over the July MoM Factory Orders, expecting 1.0% over the previous 0.6%.

On the Canadian front, at around 15:45 GMT, BoC‘s Schembri would provide his opinions on the economic outlook. Notably, earlier this week, the policymakers had kept the interest rates unchanged at 1.75%.

Later today, the EIA Oil Stocks Change computed since Aug 30 might act as a potential oil-catalyst. The Street estimate this Crude data to record -2.634 million in comparison to the prior -10.027 million.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

A significant counter-trendline was already blocking the upside moves of the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the pair was underway a tumbling rally after displaying a 0.85% drop yesterday.

Additionally, the significant Parabolic SAR remained stalled well above the trading pair, strengthening the bears. Quite noticeably, the bears were struggling to make a move out of the red Ichimoku Clouds. Meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was indicating below 50 mark, showing rising seller interest.

4-Hour Chart

On the 4H chart, the bears seem to have already started playing its role in dragging down the Loonie pair.

However, the USD/CAD had breached below a more-than-a-month-old slanting support line, triggering a massive breakdown. Today, the pair continued to drift downwards and was testing the stable 1.3211 support line in the Asian session. Interim, any price action to the north side would have activated the robust 1.3345 resistance stalled on the upside.