USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Green Ichimoku Clouds Questioning the Downturn

After marking the day’s opening near 1.3145 level, the Loonie pair was quite reluctant to make a positive move. Laterwards, the pair attempted to make a bounce off from the 1.3133 support handle. Anyhow, the strong resistance conflux made up of the 200-day, and 100-day SMA put a lid over the pair’s gains. Notably, from there, the pair retook a downturn and this time even breached the 1.3133 support mark.

Symmetrical Triangle in Play for DXY

Meantime, two days back, the US Dollar Index had already showcased a breakout from the 1-month old symmetrical triangle. Such a rigorous price action alludes for some upcoming strong bullish movements. Today, the Greenback was underway to climb new heights. On the upside, the next resistance points stand near 97.92 and 98.29 levels.

Crude: SMAs Confining Upside

On the Crude price chart, the 50-day SMA appeared to head southwards after crossing the 100-day SMA, making a Death Cross. This near-term SMA might soon encounter and move below the 200-day SMA, transferring powers to the bears. From the fundamental side, the Middle East tensions continued to impact the commodity’s prices with a weak demand outlook under play.

Significant Economic Events

The US economic docket outweighs with high volatile June Durable Goods and Unemployment data releases.

The most significant June Non-defense Capital Goods Orders that excludes Aircraft will come out at around 12:30 GMT. The market stays bearish over this data release, expecting a 0.3% slump over the previous 0.5%. Also, the Street analysts expect the Continuing and Initial Jobless Claim computed for the last week, to report higher than their respective previous figures.

Today, the Canadian economic docket remains quite light-weighted amid lack of significant events. Also, the market won’t find any oil catalyst events like EIA or API Crude data reports today, to tweak the Crude prices.

Technical Analysis

4-Hour Chart

The significant 200-day SMA continued to cap the USD/CAD gains even today. On the downside, strong confluence consisting of the 50-day and 100-day SMA stands firm, acting as a stable support region. However, if the pair slips below this aforementioned support vicinity, then that would flash on the seller’s territory. Notably, the histograms of the MACD technical indicator were tending to point southwards, as a prelude to a bearish trend.

1-Hour Chart

According to the Ichimoku Clouds technical indicator, the Loonie pair was underway to cross below the Green Clouds, staying inside it. At this point, the Clouds was playing the role of a support line. Nevertheless, the primary trend continued to remain bearish as the base line and conversion line hovered above the pair.

The article was written by Anthony Darvall, Chief Market Analyst at easyMarkets (easymarkets.com)