USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Next South Halt at 1.2958 Pivotal Support

After breaking the strong ascending trend channel by June end, the Loonie pair appears to get into the seller’s territory. Meanwhile, Crude prices continued to clinch near its six-week highs or $60.70 bbl.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Pile of colorful Canadian money

After remaining sustained near 1.3058 levels in the last North American session, the pair lost ground and kept downtrend intact. In the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair broke the 1.3042 resistance, luring the sellers. The pair continue to head south, lingering near its 9-month low today.

The primary cause of the pair’s adverse price actions remains the sudden upsurge in the Crude prices. The commodity’s market value continued to clinch near its six-week highs or $60.70 per barrel. Crude is the largest export item in Canada. As a result, volatilities in Crude prices do play a vital role in tweaking the Loonie pair’s daily movements.

Today, Iran called on Britain to immediately release an oil tanker seized by the British Royal Marines last week. The British counterpart claimed that the oil tankers had broken the European sanctions by taking oil to Syria. Also, the US Production cut from this region, fearing Gulf of Mexico storms, transferred more power to the Crude bulls.

Significant Economic Events

There are no CAD-specific economic events for the day. However, a crucial US data report line up to tweak the pair’s daily movements. At around 12:30 GMT, the June Producer Price Index (PPI) that excludes Food & Energy will come out. The market expects the significant YoY PPI data to decline 0.1% this time.

The Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count to report at around 17:00 GMT might act as a catalyst for the Oil prices. The Rig Count had come near 788, last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

USDCAD 1 Day 12 July 2019

After breaking the strong ascending trend channel by June end, the Loonie pair appears to get into the seller’s territory. Laterwards, the drowning pair had attempted quite a few times to make a rebound price action. However, the 1.3137 sturdy resistance restricted the pair’s upward movements. Assuming the pair’s weakness below the aforementioned resistance, the healthy 1.2900 support levels could become its next rest.  All the significant SMAs stay well above the pair, supplying more power to the bears. Hence, the overall trend in the longer time scale remains bearish.

4-Hour Chart

USDCAD 240 Min 12 July 2019

Now, on a smaller time scale, the bearish picture seems evident as the pair moves, following a major counter trendline. The pair is struggling to reach 1.2958 intermediate halt in the near-term, in order to justify the counter trendline. Not only the counter trendline but also the conflux made up of major SMAs challenge the upside. Hence, chances of any positive price actions remain quite lesser in the upcoming sessions.


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