USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Eases but Closes Off the Lows

David Becker
Updated: Oct 19, 2021, 18:35 UTC

U.S. yields were mixed

USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Eases but Closes Off the Lows

The USD/CAD moved lower as the Loonie gained traction following Tuesday’s gains in builders confidence. The dollar initially lost ground early in the trading session. The yield differential continues to expect Canada to tighten interest rates ahead of the United States, helping the Canadian dollar gain ground.

Technical Analysis

The dollar lost ground to the Loonie, and the trend continues to point to a stronger Canadian dollar. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.2443. Support is seen near the July lows at 1.2308. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 11 below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction; medium-term momentum has turned negative the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a lower trajectory which points to a lower exchange rate.

Builder Confidence Rises

Homebuilder confidence declined in October. The National Association of Homebuilders reported that builder confidence rose 4 points to 80 in October. In the next six months, sales expectations increased 3 points to 84 and buyer traffic climbed 4 points to 65. , the median price of a newly built home sold in August was 20% higher than in August of 2020.

About the Author

David Becker focuses his attention on various consulting and portfolio management activities at Fortuity LLC, where he currently provides oversight for a multimillion-dollar portfolio consisting of commodities, debt, equities, real estate, and more.

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