USD/CAD & Forex Forecasts – Rising Oil Prices Threaten to Break US Dollar Uptrend

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar drifted a little lower with rates during Friday trading. The US dollar has fallen a bit against the Canadian dollar during the trading session on Friday as we are now testing the 50-day EMA, an indicator that a lot of people will probably be watching. This is a market that, despite the fact that it has fallen off a cliff here recently, is still very much in an uptrend as we are just now testing that 50-day EMA.

The 1.40 level is the beginning of support that extends down to the 1.3950 level. The market is in an area that I think a lot of people will be looking at as a potential point of inflection. We’ll have to see how this plays out. A lot of what you are seeing isn’t so much about interest rates. Really, I think a lot of it comes down to oil. Oil, of course, taking off to the upside has helped the Canadian dollar, although quietly against the United States dollar.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday, and it looks as if the 0.81 level has offered a little bit of resistance. The 0.80 level underneath is a large round number that has also now attracted the 50-day EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy and choppy behavior, but a drop from here could attract a lot of people in the mind to pick up a bit of value as the interest rate differential continues to favor the United States dollar. And of course, the Swiss National Bank has no interest in a stronger Swiss franc.

USD/MXN Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied against the Mexican peso. I think some of this could be due to concerns about the US economy. Remember, Mexico is the largest exporter to the United States, so this pair will sometimes offer a little bit of backwards momentum from what you expect. The better the US economy does, generally, the better the Mexican peso does because they sell so many things to the Americans. That being said, the market’s been in consolidation basically between 17.70 and 17.40 for several weeks now, and it looks like the market is just continuing more of the back and forth.

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