USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Rally against Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 08.11.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the session on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. All things being equal, this is a situation where the market will continue to focus on interest-rate differential, and of course the fact that the Bank of Japan has no opportunity whatsoever to change its monetary policy, therefore I think you get a situation where we eventually go to the upside and breakout to the upside.

That being said, we turn around and see buyers every time the US dollar loses a little bit of strength, not only in this market, but everywhere else. If we do break to the upside and clear the recent high, then the market is likely to continue to go looking to the ¥155 level. Underneath, we also have plenty of support in the form of the 50-Day EMA which is rising, and then of course the ¥147.80 level underneath.

I do believe that there is going to be a lot of noise in this general vicinity, and it is probably worth noting that the weekly candlestick last week was a massive shooting star, but a lot of this had to do with the nonsense on Friday were people started pushing the narrative that the Federal Reserve was going to step away from quantitative tightening. All things being equal, this is a market that every time it dips, there should be plenty of buyers because traders will continue to look at the possibility of getting paid at the end of every day.

Ultimately, this is a market that I have no interest in shorting, at least not until we break down below the ¥147.80 level, and even then, I think it would probably still be a situation where I’d have to watch the fundamentals in general and pay close attention to what the overall markets are doing. We could get a decent correction, but that will end up being a buying opportunity before it is all said and done. I expect a lot of volatility, but I also expect more upward pressure than down.

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