USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Test Support

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 30.11.22

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday to test a major trend line. At this point, it looks like the market is trying to figure out whether or not we will continue to punish the Japanese yen, or if interest rates in America are going to drop enough to make this trend change. Ultimately, it seems very unlikely that the US dollar breaks down completely against the Japanese yen, mainly because of the Japanese yen being punished by the Bank of Japan as they continue yield curve control.

On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the ¥140 level, then it’s very possible that we could go to the ¥142.50 level. If we can break above the ¥142.50 level, then we would almost certainly continue the longer term uptrend. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to look at the behavior of the Bank of Japan and whether or not it is going to continue to work against its own currency.

Even if we were to break down below the trendline, the 200-Day EMA is near the ¥135 level, so I think that will be a very important support level as well. Anything below there could change a lot of attitudes, but right now it looks as if we are in a situation where we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, so keep in mind that not only do we have the Core PCE numbers coming on Thursday, we also have the jobs number coming out on Friday.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.