USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Pulls Back After Jobs Number

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 06.11.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar fell significantly during the trading session on Friday, after the jobs number came out weaker than anticipated. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see the uptrend hold itself. Ultimately, the market breaking above the ¥150 level is a very bullish sign, and at that point in time it could open up a move back to the highs again, but quite frankly the nonsense that continues to go around based on the Federal Reserve will continue to be a major issue. The 50-Day EMA sits underneath, and could offer a significant amount of support as well.

The interest rate differential is still a mile wide, but the recent action in the bond markets in America have seen yields drop. That’s part of what we are seeing on the chart, but I think it’s only a matter of time before we see traders continue to pick up a little bit of momentum.

Underneath, if we were to break down below the ¥147.80 level, then it opens up the possibility of a bigger move to the downside. If we were to break down below there, then the market is likely to have a deeper correction, but at this point in time I would anticipate that value hunters will come back into the market, due to the fact that the Bank of Japan is nowhere near tightening its monetary policy. The market has continued to see a lot of volatility, but I do think that given enough time, we will more likely than not have a situation where we could have value hunters coming back into the situation.

All things being equal, this is a situation that I think you’re looking for more of an opportunity to pick up “cheap US dollars”, and therefore I like the idea of buying. Furthermore, it’s probably worth noting that we have bounced a bit during the trading session after the initial move lower, but whether or not it sticks remains to be seen. I will wait and see how this candlestick closes before I start buying, but buying into the weekend probably is a bit much.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.