USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Pulls Back as Yen Strengthens

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 28.11.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen on Monday but then turned around to show signs of hesitation. It’s worth noting that the market is currently hanging around the 50-Day EMA, which is a bit flat. We have shot straight up in the air for quite some time, so I think you got a situation where a little bit of excess is probably being taken out of the market. I believe that the ¥147.80 level underneath will continue to be important, and if we approach that area I am going to pay close attention as to whether or not we get some type of bounce. If we do, then it could start to form a bit of a “double bottom” on a pullback in a huge uptrend.

Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is nowhere near tight in its monetary policy, but traders are out there trying to sort out whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to change its policy. It may pause, that might provide a little bit of a reprieve against US dollar strength, but it’s worth noting that even though we have had a significant pullback over the last couple of weeks, the reality is that it is just a small blip on the radar when it comes the longer term attitude in the market. With that being the case, I think you need to be very cautious in trying to short this market, and despite the fact that we have seen a little bit of negativity, you need to understand that there is still a long way to go before we change the trend.

Because of this, I’m simply waiting for opportunities to buy on the dips. I don’t necessarily think that you have to go all in right away, but it would not surprise me at all to see this market find support underneath that you can start to fill the position around. After all, you still get paid quite handsomely at the end of every day in the form of swap due to the interest rate differential between these 2 economies.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.