USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggles With the 150 Level

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 17.10.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar gapped lower to kickoff the trading session on Monday, but then turned around to rally a bit. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, but I think more importantly, will continue to see a lot of resistance at the ¥150 level. The ¥150 level of course is an area where a lot of traders will be paying close attention, due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it is of course an area where we’ve seen a lot of noise recently.

Underneath, I still see the ¥147.80 level as an area that offers quite a bit of support as it had previously been resistance, and of course we have the 50-Day EMA in that same general vicinity as well. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility and noisy behavior. Ultimately, the Bank of Japan continues to keep interest rates extraordinarily low, therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see the Japanese yen struggle. On top of that, we also have higher interest rates in the United States and it looks like we are going to hang on to those higher interest rates for some time, and that of course makes the US dollar more attractive.

It’s not until we break down below the 50-Day EMA that I begin to worry about the overall trend, despite the fact that we have struggled quite a bit to get above the ¥150 level. If and when we finally break above that level, then I think it allows the US dollar to rally to the ¥152 region, which is where we had topped out at previously. Ultimately, I do think that we probably go above there as long as rates remain so tight, but we may need to consolidate for a while in this overall general vicinity, meaning that it may be a short-term consolidation that short-term back and forth traders probably take advantage of.

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