USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – July 30, 2019 Forecast

The Dollar/Yen is trading lower on Tuesday as investors await the release of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement and interest rate decision. The BOJ is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged and reiterate its current aggressive easing stance. This report carries event risk because some analysts believe the BOJ could tweak policy, or suggest that more stimulus was coming in the future. If central bank policymakers are more dovish then expected then the Japanese Yen could weaken.

At 04:46 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 108.573, down 0.213 or -0.20%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 108.991 will change the main trend to up. A trade through 107.212 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The USD/JPY is up eight sessions from its last main bottom. This puts it inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 108.422 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main retracement zone at 108.729 to 109.188 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally earlier today at 108.949.

The minor range is 106.775 to 108.991. Its retracement zone at 107.883 to 107.622 is support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 108.573, the direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 108.729.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 108.729 will indicate the present of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 108.422, followed by a longer-term uptrending Gann angle at 108.338 and a short-term uptrending Gann angle at 108.212.

Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of 108.212. If it fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into 107.883 over the near-term.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 108.729 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to take out today’s intraday high at 108.949. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the main top at 108.991, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 109.188.