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James Hyerczyk

Profit-taking and position-squaring drove the USD/JPY lower on Wednesday, following a prolonged move up in terms of price and time. The closing price reversal top chart pattern indicates the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. If confirmed by follow-through selling on Thursday, we could see the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, Wednesday’s closing price reversal top indicates that momentum may be shifting to the downside. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

A trade through 112.450 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 111.665 will change the minor trend to down. This will also confirm the shift in momentum to down.

The main range is 113.210 to 109.770. Its retracement zone at 111.896 to 111.490 is support. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the market.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on yesterday’s closing price reversal top, the direction of the USD/JPY on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s low at 112.155.

A sustained move over 112.155 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum we could see a breakout over 112.450. This could lead to a quick test of a long-term downtrending Gann angle at 112.507.

Overtaking 112.507 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Crossing to the strong side of the uptrending Gann angle at 112.629 will put the USD/JPY in a bullish position. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at 112.858. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 113.210 main top.

Taking out 112.155 will confirm the closing price reversal top. If selling pressure increased on this move then look for a potential break into the main Fibonacci level at 111.896.

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