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USD/JPY Price Forecast March 22, 2018, Technical Analysis

By:
Christopher Lewis
Updated: Mar 22, 2018, 04:57 UTC

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen in preparation for the monetary policy statement, which of course will give us direction of the greenback for the next year. I think that the question now is whether we are going to see 3 interest rate hikes this year, or a total of 4. If we seem a bit more hawkish and reach towards 4 interest rate hikes, then this pair should rally. Of course, the exact opposite is true.

USD/JPY daily chart, March 22, 2018

The US dollar has fallen during the day on Wednesday, reaching towards the 106 level. That’s an area that has a bit of psychological importance, but at the end of the day it’s not a major level. I think the 105.50 level is much more supportive underneath, and that will be where value hunters could return to the marketplace. The 105-level underneath is even more supportive, so I think it’s more of a zone that we are looking at, and less of a level. If we were to break down below that 105 level, that would be extraordinarily negative for the US dollar, sending it down to 100.

USD/JPY Video 22.03.18

The alternate scenario of course is that we get bullish pressure and it looks likely that we will reach towards the 107.50 level, but obviously this is going to take some help from the Federal Reserve. I believe that the next 24 hours will be very rocky and noisy but could give us some form of clarity as to where we are going next. In general, I believe that we will find value hunters eventually, but it’s going to take a bit of help. The next 24 hours could very well determine where this pair goes for the next several months. Because of this, be very cautious and you small position sizing until the market proves you correct.

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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