USD/JPY Price Forecast – slow start to the week

The US dollar has rallied slightly against the Japanese yen in what could probably be best described as a quiet start to the week. Perhaps this is a bit of a hangover after the jobs number on Monday, as traders are trying to decide what the focus on next. Beyond that, there are concerns about US/China trade relations, which has its own effect on this market. Ultimately, this is a market that moves on risk appetite, assuming that we can ever get stabilization in that aspect.

The ¥111 level continues to be very important from my perspective, and I believe that we are attempting to establish a bit of a base in this area but I also recognize it’s going to take a lot of work. Because of this, I am more than willing to be patient as I think the market just doesn’t know what to do in the short term. Longer-term, I believe that we will ultimately go higher, if nothing else but simply because of the interest rate differential outlook, but we would need the headlines to quiet down for that to happen. One thing is for sure, that hasn’t been the case for quite some time and I don’t see that changing unfortunately.

In which should be a relatively easy market to trade these days, the USD/JPY pair has been rather challenging. In fact, I suspect that the biggest problems that we have in this market is that there is a serious lack of clarity more than anything else. It appears that the market is more confused than anything at this point.

USD/JPY Video 11.09.18