USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Continues Consolidation

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. The market is trying to form a bit of a bullish flag, and it is interesting to note that the ¥115 level above is crucial on the monthly charts. In other words, I think we are getting very close to making some type of bigger decision. If we were to break out above the ¥115 level on a daily close, I suspect that could be the beginning of another major “buy-and-hold” scenario, perhaps lasting months.

USD/JPY Video 05.11.21

On the other hand, we could very easily break down towards the ¥112.50 level, looking for signs of support. The 50 day EMA is racing towards that area, so it does kind of play out quite nicely if that does happen. You will note that I have not suggested selling yet, because it is so bullish looking on this chart and quite frankly, I do not even think that you can seriously consider shorting this pair until it breaks down below the ¥110 level. It is not a huge surprise that we are killing time here, because we are sitting below such a major area, and have seen such a huge move to the upside.

At this point, I think it is all about the ¥115 level, and whether or not it finally gets breached. The jobs number on Friday will cause massive amounts of volatility, so if anything, I would be looking for a short-term debt that I can take advantage of. Beyond that, I will probably reassess everything over the weekend.

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