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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar initially fell during the trading session on Friday but found enough support near the ¥140 level to turn around and form a bit of a bounce. That being said, the market is likely to see a bit of a bounce here, but I do think there is plenty of resistance above to continue to push this market lower. The most obvious spot is the 50 day EMA, which is colored in red on my chart. The area between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA should be massive resistance as well. Any type of bounce from here should be sold into, at the first signs of failure.

USD/JPY Video 02.11.20

If we can break down below the ¥104 level, then the descending triangle that I see on the chart measures for a move back towards the recent lows at the ¥102 level. Looking at this chart, you can see that it has been very choppy and of course it makes quite a bit of sense considering the fact that both of these are considered to be safety currency, and therefore sometimes they will move on the same fundamentals. Currently though, the Japanese bond market pays more of a return than the US bond market at some levels, which is a bit astonishing in and of itself.

All of this being said, I have no interest whatsoever in buying this pair, it is in a downtrend and therefore there is no need to fight that. I am simply looking for exhaustion that I can take advantage of, and therefore follow the trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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