USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Struggle With Same Barriers

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday to show hesitation to break above the ¥111 level again, an area that is starting to look more and more like a potential double top. Further adding more credence to that is the fact that the MACD is showing divergence, so it does suggest that we are running out of momentum. Beyond that, we also have this area showing a significant amount of resistance over the longer term as well, so it all lines up quite nicely.

USD/JPY Video 30.06.21

Looking at this chart, you can see that the 50 day EMA is starting to reach to the upside as well, and has been dynamic support as well, so it is very likely that it will be treated more or less like a trendline. We break down below that, then I would anticipate a move towards the 200 day EMA, which is currently hanging about the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It is also where we had seen a significant amount of support based upon the pair of shooting stars that kicked off the most recent up trending channel.

Nonetheless, that is an area that can be broken down below because we have sliced through it multiple times over the last several years. In other words, we are most certainly looking at the market as potentially trying to break above a major barrier, but it is clearly struggling, and it would not be a huge surprise to see it fail. Keep in mind that the market is somewhat sensitive to risk appetite as well, so if we see some type of general selloff, it will probably show up here also.

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