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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, but then gave back the gains to slice through the ¥107 level before bouncing from a slightly supportive area. At this point, I still favor the downside in this pair, because we have the US dollar being punished due to the Federal Reserve doing everything you can to kill it, but you also have the safety factor of the Japanese yen coming into play as well. At this point, the market breaking below the lows of the last couple of days should send this market down towards the ¥105 level and that is my base case right now.

USD/JPY Video 04.05.20

That being said, if we take out the Thursday candlestick to the upside, we probably go looking towards the ¥108 level. I do not like this pair to the upside for exceptionally long, so I prefer to fade rallies, but it should be noted that the market will chop around quite a bit. For what it is worth, as I record this video the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down almost 2%, and that of course is a major “risk off” type of scenario.

With this, I believe that we have a simple back-and-forth type of grind but eventually will probably break down. You are going to need to be very patient in order to take advantage of it, but I do think the downside is without a doubt the most prudent. In fact, I do not really have a scenario in which a willing to buy this pair quite yet, but of course I will keep you up-to-date.

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