Christopher Lewis
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USD/JPY daily chart, February 06, 2019

The US dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as the ¥110 level continues offer far too much in the way of resistance. The 50 day EMA is at that same level, and of course the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is as well. We are definitely in a downtrend and have recently made a “death cross” in the market.

USD/JPY Video 06.02.19

Ultimately, I think that the market will continue to be very noisy but I think also that the Japanese yen could benefit against the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve looking softer these days. If that’s going to continue to be the case, then I think that the Japanese yen will be the beneficiary, because if the Federal Reserve it needs to be loose, that can’t possibly be a good sign for the global outlook. Remember, this pair does tend to fall in times that people are concerned.

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I think that the ¥109 level is the initial target, but then after that we could go as low as the ¥108 level. The other scenario of course is that we do find enough momentum to continue going higher, and if we do then I think the 100 level ¥0.50 level is going to continue to be massive resistance, if we even get there as the 200 day EMA is closer to the ¥111 level. Selling rallies still I think is probably the most likely way to profit in this pair going forward as we have seen so much in the way of technical destruction.

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