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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to hover around the ¥104.33 level. There is a significant amount of resistance above, so even though it is very possible we get a short-term push to the upside, I believe that it is relatively limited. The 50 day EMA has been broken above, but this has happened multiple times in the past, and I believe there is a significant amount of resistance extending all the way to the 200 day EMA above, which is still very well past the ¥105 level. Because of this, I think it is more than likely going to be a scenario that sooner or later we will get a nice candle to start selling.

USD/JPY Video 13.01.21

All of this being said, keep in mind that we are at extreme lows, so the pair may try to recover a bit, but the downside is certainly ensconced at this point. The US dollar continues to struggle in general as we have a lot of noise in general, but there is the idea of stimulus in the United States working against the value of the greenback overall. Because of this, I think that what we are looking at here is a bit of a “ceiling in the market” at the ¥105 level, so I am comfortable shorting this market anytime it shows signs of exhaustion between here and there. I do not presently have much thought towards buying, but if we broke above that 200 day EMA, I would have to rethink the entire thesis.

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