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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, October 14, 2019

The US dollar has rallied significantly against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday, crashing into the 100 a ¥0.50 level. This is an area that attracts a lot of attention because quite frankly the 200 day EMA is sitting right there. At this point, we are also testing the major selloff candlestick from late July, as the trend is being threatened. What’s even more interesting is that the US/China trade talks are going on right now, so that will of course attract a lot of attention as well.

USD/JPY Video 14.10.19

If we do pull back from here, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to be a major selloff, but it could send this market down towards the ¥107 level. That’s an area that has offered significant support and resistance recently. This would be a simple continuation of the overall consolidation that we have been in. However, if we do get some type of good news out of the US/China trade situation, then the market will more than likely close above the 200 day EMA, which should send this market much higher.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the trade talks may not end until after the markets close. If that’s the case then I would fully anticipate seeing some type of gap higher on Monday. Obviously, the exact opposite can happen if there is some type of breakdown in talks. The most likely scenario is that there some extension of what seems to be a never ending drama. At that point, it may be relatively quiet. Earnings season is next week and that can also have an influence on this pair.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

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