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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, July 09, 2019

The US dollar has rallied again during early trading on Monday, reaching towards the ¥108.50 level. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to reach towards the 50 day EMA above, and if we can break above there it’s very likely that we could then go to the ¥109.60 level. At this point, that is my thesis as we have been forming a significant turnaround, and if the market does in fact break out, this could be the bottom of the pullback that we have been seen for some time. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has offered support, as one would expect. However, keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to the stock market, so in a sense it’s a bit counterintuitive – but if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates that should lift the stock market, which ironically will lift the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

USD/JPY Video 09.07.19

However, if the stock markets start to sell off and we get more of a “risk off” type of environment, this pair will fall as the Japanese yen is most certainly favored. Overall, I am bullish of this pair but I also recognize that we have a lot of concerns out there that could change the attitude of traders rather quickly. The US/China situation of course comes to mind, the Federal Reserve not cutting rates would be a shock, Deutsche Bank is now a potential problem, and the list goes on. With this being the case, I am bullish but I recognize that attitudes can change in an instant. Caution is most certainly advised.

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