USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar running into resistance

The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, crashing into the ¥108 level before pulling back. At this point, there is a lot of noise just above so keep that in mind.
Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, June 28, 2019

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session, breaking above the ¥108 level at one point before running into selling pressure. The ¥108 level is an area that was previous support so it makes sense that it could be a bit of resistance. At this point, it’s obvious that the markets are waiting to see what happens with the G 20 this weekend, so it’s difficult to put anything significant into the market at this point. That being said though, we are most certainly in a downtrend recently, so if I had to do anything it would be selling rallies. That being said I would expect a major move between now and Monday morning.

USD/JPY Video 28.06.19

However, Monday morning could be rather drastic and sudden as far as momentum is concerned, but I truly believe that the risk to the downside remains elevated as far as risk appetite is concerned. If that’s going to be the case we should continue to drop from here, and it wouldn’t take much to upset the markets over the weekend. At that point it should allow this market to go looking towards the recent lows of the ¥107 level, and if that gives away it’s very likely we could go to the ¥105 level underneath there. That would be the market breaking through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, retesting that general vicinity, and then breaking down to wipe out the entire move to the upside, something that happens quite a bit. The alternate scenario of course is that we break above the ¥108.75 level, something that would take a lot of momentum building.

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