USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Runs Into Resistance Again

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Monday as we continue to see the ¥105 level be crucial. The question now is whether or not we are going to use this pair as a gauge of risk appetite, or are we going to focus more on safety? The candlestick of course look somewhat neutral and at this point in time it should be noted that we tested the 50 day EMA during the trading session. By pulling back from the 50 day EMA, it is likely that we are simply continuing what we have seen for a while and although it is going to be quite noisy.

USD/JPY Video 17.11.20

At this point in time, it is very likely that we could go down to the ¥104 level, perhaps even the ¥103.50 level. Fading short-term rallies will probably continue to be the case going forward, as this pair does tend to be very noisy and choppy to say the least. Ultimately, this is a market that has no real argument for going higher, at least not in the short term. There is a zone of resistance that extends from the 50 day EMA to the 200 day EMA that people need to pay attention to and be cognizant of, because quite frankly this is an area where we have seen a lot of selling at previously.

Ultimately, I think that even though we have the very bullish candlestick from last week, the reality is that we are still struggling and we have just gotten word of another vaccine, and although it was received with positive news, the reality is that the reaction was not straight through the ceiling like it was last week, meaning that perhaps something deeper is going on.