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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar has gone back and forth a bit against the Japanese yen, showing signs of stalling. However, we have not necessarily formed a bearish signal quite yet, but I fully anticipate that I will be selling this market given enough time. The 50 day EMA above offers technical resistance, so I would love to see this pair get closer to that before selling. I will have to simply wait and see what the market does but notice how I have not mentioned buying this pair, even though I am very bullish of the US dollar currently. Given enough time, the old “risk off” attitude of the markets will probably come back into this pair, meaning that we will sell off. As you look at the longer-term time frames, you can clearly see that we have had multiple lower highs leading down to this region.

USD/JPY Video 25.09.20

A breakdown below the lows of the trading session from Monday would open up the floodgates for a much bigger move, and I think at that point we would be looking at a realistic shot at the ¥102 level. Having said that, this is a pair that tends to grind more than anything else, because both central banks are so loose with their monetary policy. Furthermore, the Japanese economy is in a state of flux right now, so that is not helping as far as clarity is concerned. Ultimately, the US dollar is very strong against almost everything, but we may see a bit of an exception in this market given enough time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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