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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, November 22, 2019

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as the markets are choppy yet again. That doesn’t seem to be much consensus as to whether we are “risk on” or perhaps “risk off.” Because of this, the pair is trading between the crucial 50 day EMA on the bottom and the important 200 day EMA above. At this point, the market does look as if it is trying to build up enough inertia to make a move but hasn’t been able to do so quite yet. Because of this, the market is likely to be very difficult to deal with, so essentially the easiest way to play the USD/JPY pair is to wait for some type of impulsive candlestick and assume that it is a significant move.

USD/JPY Video 22.11.19

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level above continues to be crucial, hovering around the ¥109.50 level, extending to the ¥110 level. If we can break above the ¥110 level, the market is likely to go much higher at that point, but we are going to need to see some type of catalyst, probably in the realm of the US/China trade talks. Alternately, if we get some type of negativity, the market could break down below the 50 day EMA and start reaching towards the ¥108 level, and a move below there could open up the door to the ¥107 level. All things being equal, you are better off waiting for some type of move in this market before trying to get involved.

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