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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the week, reaching towards the ¥110 level. That is an area that should continue to be important, as it is the middle of the larger consolidation area and therefore what I consider to be “fair value” for the pair. The market has a major bottom at the ¥105 level, and a major top at the ¥115 level. Ultimately, this means that we are right in the middle and therefore we should see a confluence of both buyers and sellers.

USD/JPY Video 17.02.20

At this point, the fact that the weekly candlestick is starting to look like a shooting star suggests that we could get a bit of a pullback. If we can break down below the massive candlestick from the previous week, it’s likely that this pair drops all the way down to the ¥105 level. Alternately, if the market breaks above the top of the shooting star for the week, that should send the market looking towards the ¥112 level, possibly even the ¥115 level.

All things being equal, it does look like the markets are priming themselves for some type of pullback, perhaps as risk sentiment fails. Alternately, if we get a move above the top of the shooting star, it would be an extraordinarily explosive bullish signal and could send this market much higher. At that point, the momentum will probably pick up. Keep in mind that this pair falls when people are looking for safety and let’s be honest here: safety could be something that people will be looking for. In the meantime, wait for the signal and trade appropriately.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

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