USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – USD Runs Into Trouble at Same Level

The US dollar initially fell during the course of the week, but then turned around to reach towards the ¥104 level. The ¥104 level extends all the way to the ¥105 level, so it makes it more or less a “fade the rally” type of situation for short-term traders. That being said, this candlestick is somewhat impressive, but even if we were to turn around the longer-term trend, it is likely that we would take quite some time to make that happen. Ultimately, the market is very noisy in general, so I do believe that you are probably better off trading short-term charts at this point. However, if we can get a break above the ¥105 level on a weekly close, then you might be better off switching to a longer-term bullish bias.

USD/JPY Video 11.01.21

That being said, I think that traders are still focusing on the idea of stimulus coming out the United States, so that continues to weigh upon the US dollar in general. I think ultimately this is a market that is going to be very choppy as we have been trading like that over the last several months. I do not see that changing in the short term, so I believe that the next couple of candlesticks will still favor short-term back-and-forth choppy behavior. From a longer-term standpoint, I do think that it is very likely we will at least try to get down to the ¥101 level underneath which was the bottom of that massive candlestick from the bounce. At this point, it is all about the US dollar losing strength more than anything else.

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