USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 11, 2015, 12:30 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is flat today as the US dollar held on to gains after falling in the Asian session. The US is on holiday today

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is flat today as the US dollar held on to gains after falling in the Asian session. The US is on holiday today and there is little data on the calendar. The mix of Chinese data this morning is weighing on the commodity currencies. The CAD is trading at 1.3271. The drop in oil prices should continue to weigh on the export currency.

Wednesday is Veterans Day in the U.S., where bond markets will be shut in observance of the holiday, but stock and other capital markets will be open.

The dollar has gained traction in recent trade as the Federal Reserve has strongly signaled it could start raising rates at its December meeting. Last week’s upbeat U.S. jobs data for October also bolstered the case for the Fed’s tightening, pushing the dollar. the Federal Reserve said that a December interest rate increase is still on the table. On top of that on Friday, data showed an addition of 271,000 jobs were created in October, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5%, beating expectations.

The good news greatly increased chances for a December rate hike. As a result, bond yields surged and the dollar appreciated against all currencies. The dollar index made a bullish move and is now at a seven-month high, breaking above resistance levels. The move suggests a continuation of the dollar’s bull market.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	6.300M	0.500M	2.800M
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	3.9%		4.2%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)	10.2%	10.2%	10.3%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)	5.6%	5.8%	5.7%
GBP	BoE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)	3.0%	3.2%	3.0%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Oct)	3.3K	1.5K	0.5K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Sep)	5.3%	5.4%	5.4%
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)			55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)		45%	44%
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)		6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.0%	0.0%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		0.752M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Oct)		-130.0B	91.0B