USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 12, 2015, 11:30 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD gained a few points as the dollar rallied in the early session and gold and oil remained weak weighing heavily

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD gained a few points as the dollar rallied in the early session and gold and oil remained weak weighing heavily on the Loonie. The CAD is trading at 1.3270. The pair is expected to find support at 1.3219, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3192. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3279, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3312.

Investors will look forward to Canada’s new housing price index data for September, scheduled to be released later today.

Analysts say flat GDP growth largely due to the impact of low oil prices on the resource sector, means a rate hike in Canada is unlikely in the near to medium term.

Canada’s unemployment rate ticked down a notch to 7 per cent in October, Statistics Canada said, also on Friday, adding that most of the gains came from temporary workers hired to prepare for the Oct. 19 federal election.

“The economy looks to be grinding along at a pace just fast enough to absorb population growth and keep the unemployment rate pegged at around 7 per cent for now,” Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, said in a note to investors.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has signaled that barring an unexpected economic shock such as a global stock meltdown it would raise rates from 0.25 per cent at its December meeting. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen repeated the forecast this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)	53.3		55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)	49%	45%	44%
AUD	Employment Change (Oct)	58.6K	15.0K	-0.8K
AUD	Full Employment Change (Oct)	40.0K		-10.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	5.9%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CNY	New Loans	514.0B	800.0B	1,050.0B
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		1.016M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 13, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.2%	0.1%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)		18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.5%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.1%
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		84.0	82.1
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)		91.5	90.0
USD	FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			572