USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

By:

Published: Nov 13, 2015, 12:46 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD drifted down 14 points ahead of significant US data due later in the session. The CAD is just repositioning

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD drifted down 14 points ahead of significant US data due later in the session. The CAD is just repositioning itself after its declines against the US dollar. The pair is trading at 1.3274 remaining near its highest level of 2015. Oil and gold remain near bottoms offering no help to the commodity driven currency.

Fed deputy governor Stanley Fischer pointed late on Thursday to the impact of the dollar’s gains on inflation but gave no sign that the stronger currency would be a barrier to raising rates and said its influence on prices would wane next year.

While there is a broad consensus between the major banks around further gains for the dollar, a range of arguments have emerged this week for why the euro may yet prove somewhat more robust than the market’s biggest dollar bulls expect.

Morgan Stanley strategist Ian Stannard pointed to the impact on risk of higher Fed rates, a stronger dollar, and resulting lower commodity prices.

The greenback fell against all 10 developed-nation currencies except the Norwegian krone this week as Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer said Thursday the Fed’s decision to delay raising rates has helped to offset the economic headwinds caused by a strengthening dollar.

Policy should be tightened only gradually once the Fed starts raising rates, New York Fed president William C. Dudley said earlier.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)	1.8%	1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)	20.5B	18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 16, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)			0.1%
JPY	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		-0.1%	-0.3%
JPY	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		-0.2%	-1.2%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)			0.9%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.2%
USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		-5.00	-11.36