USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD gave up 15 points to trade at 1.3306 remaining near the top of its trading range after global commodities fell and the dollar rallied after terrorist attacks in Paris. Gold gained on safe haven trades is helping support the CAD. Crude oil remained flat after its initial gains. The Loonie has been locked within a 1.3240-1.3340 trading band this week. The absence of any Canadian data of note left the currency direction to the whims of WTI price movements and US dollar sentiment against the majors. To its credit, the loonie held its own despite the nonfarm payrolls report empowering US dollar bulls.

The week ahead could see the loonie benefit from some domestic data; unfortunately, however, the good stuff won’t be released until Friday.  CPI is forecast to rise 1.1% (year-over-year), core 2.1% which won’t do anything to undermine the CAD. 

A drop in retail sales could be damaging unless it is explained away by lower gas prices. The bearish outlook for oil prices combined with the expectations of rising US rates and a sluggishly growing Canadian economy will ensure continuing downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus