USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 23, 2015, 12:19 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD soared 69 points to trade at 1.3420 its highest level in quite some time as the greenback continued to gain

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD soared 69 points to trade at 1.3420 its highest level in quite some time as the greenback continued to gain breaking the 100 price. Gold dipped over $7 and oil fell over $1 today leaving the Canadian dollar defenseless. Finance Minister Bill Morneau said the newly-elected Liberal government has inherited far more debt than expected in the wake of low oil prices and a global economic slowdown.

In his first economic update since taking over the federal finance portfolio, Morneau said Friday that Canada’s overall growth has been revised down from two per cent in April, 2015, to 1.2 per cent.

The Liberal government also faces an updated fiscal baseline about $6 billion lower per year than what was forecasted in the Conservatives’ April budget.

Canada’s fiscal outlook is somewhat less optimistic than the one presented in Budget 2015 earlier this year by the then-governing federal Conservative Party, according to Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

The projected budgetary balance has been revised downward by about $6 billion per year over the next few years. Deficits of $3 billion in 2015-16 and $3.9 billion in 2016-17 are forecast, and further deficits are expected in the couple years after that. By 2019-20, a surplus of $1.7 billion is forecast, followed by a $6.6 billion surplus in 2020-21.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Labour Thanksgiving Day
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	52.6	52.0	52.1
EUR	German Services PMI (Nov)	55.6	54.3	54.5
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	52.8	52.3	52.3
EUR	Markit Composite PMI (Nov)	54.4	53.9	53.9
EUR	Services PMI (Nov)	54.6	54.1	54.1
EUR	German Buba President Weidmann

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.3%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.8%
EUR	German Business Expectations (Nov)		104.0	103.8
EUR	German Current Assessment (Nov)		112.4	112.6
EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index (		108.2	108.2
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		2.0%	1.5%
USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)		1.2%	1.2%
USD	Goods Trade Balance (Oct)			-58.63B
USD	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a.		5.2%	5.1%
USD	CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)		99.5	97.6