USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – February 11, 2016

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Updated: Feb 10, 2016, 18:10 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD posted a modest gain shortly before the start of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress. The Forex

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD posted a modest gain shortly before the start of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress. The Forex pair finished at 1.3927, up 0.0063, or 0.45%.

Market participants faced a choppy, two-sided trade at times due to volatility in the crude oil market, but for the most part, traders were focused on what Yellen was preparing to say.

Crude oil prices reached a new 12-year low, helping to underpin the market, but uncertainty ahead of Yellen prevented a substantial rally from taking place. Crude price were driven by rumors that both Iran and Russia were in favor of holding a meeting to discuss production cuts. Some traders went as far as to say that Russia even proposed an across the board one million barrel per day production cut by all the market players. However, the major players didn’t bite on the news, suggesting that the news about Iran and Russia was just rumors.

The USD/CAD could pick up strength later in the session if oil rebounds, or if Fed Chair Yellen delivers hawkish remarks. Look for weakness to prevail if Yellen is pessimistic about the economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

China – Lunar New Year
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	2.400M	3.80M	3.837M
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	-0.2%
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	4.2%	-1.0%	-3.5%
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)	6.0%		-2.7%
GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)	-1.1%	-0.1%	-0.7%
GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.4%
GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate			0.6%
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		3.933M	7.792M
USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jan)		45.0B	-14.0B
NZD	Business NZ Pmi (Jan)			56.7
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Jan)		52%	50%

30-Minute USD/CAD

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

China – Lunar New Year
EUR	Eurogroup Meetings
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	281K	285K
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks	3.933M	7.792M
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Dec)

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction

Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18

Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb

About the Author

James Hyerczykauthor

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.