USD/CHF Forecast May 15, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair fell initially during the session on Thursday, but found enough support at the 0.9050 region again to form a hammer. Because of this, we feel that this pair is going to bounce a little bit from here, but we also recognize that it is probably going to be just a short-term rally. We think that waiting for a resistive candle above will be the way to go going forward as we sell the pair yet again. Because of this, we are bearish and we recognize that a move below the 0.90 level would also be a sell signal. We have no interest in buying at the moment, because we recognize there is so much in the way of negativity. With that being said, we recognize that the place that this market does change tone is above the 0.95 handle. This is an area that was once massively supportive, and should now be massively resistive. It isn’t that we can get above there, it’s just that if we do that would be a very positive sign going forward.

We have to keep in mind that the 0.90 level below has a large, round, psychological significance to it, so it’s not overly surprising that the market may struggle to get below the recent area that we have been testing. However, we will have to wait and see what happens next. Be patient, because we are about to get an idea of where the next several hundred pips will come from in this particular pair. Because of that, being patient will give you the right information in order to take advantage of what should be a longer-term move.

Ultimately, the US dollar does look like it’s losing a little bit of its luster, and if that’s the case it’s only a matter time before people prefer the Swiss franc. After all, they are starting to buy the Euro, and most of the problems with the Swiss franc simply come down to being in the same neighborhood. With that, we could see lower prices given enough time.